COVID-19 highlights the need for food systems-based policies for reducing tropical deforestation

Unlike the case of export food chains with high-visibility zero-deforestation commitments from branded companies, there are few instruments available to reduce deforestation attributed to small and medium producers focused on the domestic market. Largely this is the result of public policies that have overlooked and ultimately abandoned these producers. In Peru, for example, a recent study (under review) reported low correlations between deforestation and the production of export agricultural commodities, such as cacao and coffee (Castro-Nunez et al., 2020). Increased production on forest margins of palm oil and short-cycle fruits and crops, such as maize for the poultry industry, for example, is driven by demand in urban centers. In turn, these demands reflect changes in diets in terms of processed food, fruit and poultry consumption, all of which have increased substantially in Peru over the last decade due to rising incomes.

As economies in developing countries grow, increased economic opportunities in cities lead to urban migration and population growth, subsequently increasing urban demand for agricultural products, which has been linked with increasing tropical deforestation, particularly in Asia and Latin America. For example, DeFries et al. (2010) identified urban markets in developing countries and export markets in both developing and developed ones as demand sources for deforestation. Despite this linkage, most work has focused nearly exclusively on global export markets as deforestation drivers ignoring or underplaying the importance of domestic diet shifts and consumption patterns.

The assumption that subsistence low-opportunity cost agriculture is one of the major drivers of tropical deforestation is becoming less valid over time. Research suggests that small-scale subsistence farmers with little connection to markets deforest less, highlighting the importance of commercial market demand as an underlying cause of deforestation (DeFries et al., 2010). Some of these linkages are direct (e.g., expansion of ranching activities for dairy or beef production), while others are indirect (e.g., growing maize production for poultry feed or palm oil for snack foods). Nonetheless, both respond to increasing incomes in urban areas that in turn support higher calorie consumption, increased reliance on processed and prepared foods and the adoption of less diverse dietary patterns by all social strata.

Despite the reported parallel changes in diets and production systems, little has been done to understand the relationship between shifting consumption patterns and land-use change and even less has been done to develop policies to incentivize sustainable land use through shifts in consumer behavior in tropical countries. Thus, a key component to reducing deforestation may lie at understanding the nexus of land and food systems. There is a need to better understand the relationship between production and dietary shifts and to incorporate this knowledge into developing and promoting deforestation-free food policies and diets that could simultaneously contribute to climate change mitigation, biodiversity conservation and green economic recovery post-pandemic.

Furthermore, given the current COVID-19 crisis, the short-term development priorities of both developing and developed countries will be largely related to food production, job creation, and economic reconstruction. In the wake of the crisis, many city residents are returning to their home districts to subsist through farming, and we will likely see a migration of workers to agricultural frontiers in search of income opportunities.

The situation generated by COVID-19 provides an opportunity to define the type of food systems that we would like to see in the future and that can contribute to reducing deforestation. According to Hepburn et al. (2020), and considering the rescue packages in relation to COVID-19 in G20 countries, only 4% of policies are ‘green’, while 92% are ‘colorless’, meaning that they maintain the status quo, and 4% are ‘brown’ and likely to increase net GHG emissions. A sustainable food systems lens has the potential to inform the discussion in relation to how investments should be prioritized for a more sustainable world.

Existing land-based policy approaches, and incentives and market-based approaches, need to be complemented with policies targeting both domestic agriculture and globally traded commodities. To do so, researchers and policymakers must use a sustainable food systems lens to develop and promote policy approaches that support sustainable low-deforestation food production systems via incentivizing sustainable, inclusive, and healthy consumption patterns.

Figure 1 represents the different financial and market-based approaches that have been implemented alongside land-based approaches to address tropical deforestation associated with both subsistence and globally traded commercial agriculture. Missing from these are approaches based on the understanding that developing countries’ consumption patterns and diets deal with deforestation associated with small and medium farmers linked with domestic markets. Such initiatives must be employed concertedly while engaging national, international, and public and private sector actors to effectively address deforestation in tropical countries.

Read more about the Alliance’s response to COVID-19 impacts on global food systems.